Gold Rate at 8-Month Low, Silver Crashes to Rs 2.10 Lakh: 3-Day Rout Deepens in Chandigarh, North India
Gold rate today: A surging dollar, a hawkish Fed, and vanishing rate-cut hopes have wiped out months of gains. Silver is now nearly 47% below its January peak.
North Desk Correspondent
Chandigarh, June 25
Gold and silver prices in Chandigarh and North India plummeted for the third straight session on Thursday, with silver crashing to its lowest level in seven months and gold hovering at an eight-month low, as a runaway dollar and growing fears of a US interest rate hike continued to batter precious metals globally.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold rate today touched an intraday low of Rs 1,40,543 per 10 grams before recovering partially to Rs 1,41,476 — still down sharply on the day. Silver fared worse, plunging to Rs 2,10,043 per kg before staging a mild pullback.
In physical markets, 24-carat gold in Chandigarh is trading around Rs 1,40,280 per 10 grams and 22-carat gold at Rs 1,28,600 per 10 grams, as per Good Returns data. Physical gold has nosedived by Rs 28,000 in just three days, while silver ETFs have fallen as much as 8 per cent in a single session.
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Silver, gold rate: From Record Peaks to a Seven-Month Low
The scale of silver’s collapse puts the current rout in sharp relief. Silver is now down approximately 47 per cent from its all-time high reached in January 2026, and has shed 25 per cent in the past month alone. In domestic terms, the metal touched a record high of Rs 3,59,374 per kg on January 28 — a level that had spawned euphoric analyst forecasts of Rs 4 lakh per kg and beyond. Today it trades at barely Rs 2.10 lakh on MCX. That is a crash of over Rs 1.49 lakh per kg from the peak.
Gold’s correction, while less extreme in percentage terms, is equally striking in rupee values. The yellow metal has shed Rs 78,500 in just three trading days — a pace of decline that has rattled retail buyers and investors alike.
The Fed That Changed Everything
The trigger for this rout can be traced to a single meeting in Washington last week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at 3.50-3.75 per cent but delivered a sharply hawkish surprise: nine of 18 FOMC participants are now projecting at least one rate hike before the end of 2026 — a dramatic reversal from earlier this year when the committee was leaning toward cuts. The Fed also stripped its easing language from the policy statement entirely.
Warsh, in his first press conference as chair, told reporters: “We’ve missed on inflation for five years and we’re going to fix that.” Markets believed every word. The selling in gold started the moment the dot-plot projections hit and the metal has not found a sustained bid since. The 2-year US Treasury yield surged 2.25 per cent in a single week — and money left metals and went straight into yield, swiftly and without pause.
Markets are now pricing in a roughly 68 per cent probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up sharply from 29 per cent just one week ago. The US dollar index has surged above 101.50 — its highest level in over a year — making dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver more expensive for buyers in other currencies.
The logic of the sell-off is ruthless and simple: gold pays no yield. With Treasuries paying more by the day and the Fed signalling it is not ready to discuss cuts, the bull argument has no near-term foundation to stand on.
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What the World’s Top Banks Are Saying
Gold rate: Despite the pain, most major institutional analysts have not abandoned the long-term bull case — though near-term targets have been trimmed and timelines pushed.
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold forecast to $5,400, while JPMorgan’s commodities head Natasha Kaneva projects $6,300 by end-2027. Both institutions revised their targets lower in the near term as rate-cut expectations slipped into 2027, but maintained the structural direction of travel. Morgan Stanley’s second-half 2026 target of $5,200 per ounce is seen as achievable within the current macro framework, but requires a specific and sequential set of developments — most critically, a softening of Fed guidance.
For silver, the range of forecasts reflects the metal’s more volatile nature. The LBMA analyst survey for 2026 shows an average forecast of $79.57 per ounce, with a range running from $42 to $165. Bank of America has flagged a bull scenario of $135-309 if physical shortages intensify. JPMorgan projects an average of $81 per ounce for the year. Goldman Sachs expects silver to average $85-100 per ounce in 2026, viewing it as the primary strategic metal of the green transition, while Citi has issued a target of $110 for the second half of 2026 citing an acute shortage of physical silver available for immediate industrial delivery.
The key unlock for a recovery is a change in the Fed’s posture. If the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates in the second half of 2026, real yields would fall and the dollar would weaken — both conditions that historically give silver its sharpest upward moves. The bull case: persistent supply deficits, strong industrial demand from solar and EVs, and a potential Fed pivot could push silver toward $100 per ounce and beyond.
What It Means for Buyers
For jewellery buyers in the tricity — particularly those eyeing purchases ahead of the wedding season — the correction brings gold to levels not seen since October 2025, offering a relative window. For investors sitting on silver purchased near the January highs, losses are steep and analysts see no immediate catalyst for a sharp reversal as long as the dollar and rate-hike expectations remain elevated.
The World Gold Council’s framework offers a measured read: gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and source of stability remains key amid continued market volatility, and a more severe global downturn could see gold perform strongly. The structural case — central bank buying, de-dollarisation, and sovereign debt concerns — has not changed. What has changed is the timeline.
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