Gold, Silver Prices Slide Again: The Fed Shock, the 32% Silver Crash, and What Analysts Predict
From record peaks to a two-month low, Gold, Silver Prices are being hammered by a dollar rally and a hawkish policy pivot in Washington. But the long-term bull case is far from buried.
By North Desk Bureau
Gold and silver prices from Delhi to Chandigarh in North India extended their sharp decline on Wednesday for the second consecutive session, weighed down by a stronger dollar and a dramatic policy shift at the United States Federal Reserve that has upended the rate-cut expectations that had powered a historic bull run in precious metals.
According to Good Returns data, 24-carat gold is trading at Rs 1,44,460 per 10 grams in Chandigarh on June 24, while 22-carat gold stands at Rs 1,32,300 per 10 grams. Silver is quoted at Rs 2,45,000 per kg. On the MCX futures market, gold crashed nearly 2.5 per cent in early trading on Wednesday, falling below Rs 1.44 lakh per 10 grams, while silver nosedived by nearly 2 per cent to trade below Rs 2.23 lakh per kg.
A Long Way Down from the Peak
Gold silver price: The numbers in isolation do not tell the full story. To understand the magnitude of this correction, one must go back to late January 2026, when silver touched an all-time domestic high. MCX spot prices peaked near Rs 3,59,374 per kg on January 28, 2026, driven by tight global supply, surging industrial demand across solar, electronics, and electrification, and a wave of investor buying. At Rs 2,45,000 per kg today, silver has shed over Rs 1.14 lakh — a correction of more than 32 per cent from that pinnacle.
Gold’s correction has been less severe in percentage terms but no less significant. The yellow metal had crossed the $5,000-per-ounce mark for the first time and was trading around $5,600 before the sell-off began. It is now struggling around $4,100 internationally.
What Triggered This: The Warsh Shock
Gold silver price: The proximate cause of this week’s rout is a single policy meeting in Washington. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75 per cent on June 17 — fully priced by markets — but delivered a sharply hawkish surprise: nine of 18 participants are now projecting at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, a dramatic shift from prior projections that had leaned toward cuts or extended holds.
The man at the centre of this pivot is new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh, in his first press conference as chair, underscored the Fed’s determination to bring inflation down to the 2 per cent target. “We’ve missed on inflation for five years and we’re going to fix that,” he said, suggesting a hawkish approach. His committee also struck forward guidance language from its policy statement — the very language that had been keeping alive the expectation of rate cuts, and with it, the gold and silver rally.
The selling in gold started the moment the dot-plot projections hit markets. The metal has not found a sustained bid since. The logic is straightforward: gold pays nothing, and Treasuries are paying more by the day. Without rate cuts coming, the bulls do not have an argument.
The US Dollar Index surged approximately 0.9 per cent to 100.5 — its sharpest single-session rally since early March 2026 — and the inverse relationship between dollar strength and gold pricing played out in textbook fashion.
Adding to the selling pressure, progress in US-Iran peace negotiations eased geopolitical risk, removing a key pillar of safe-haven demand for gold.
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The Silver Story Is Different — and More Complicated
Gold silver price: Silver’s fall is steeper because its drivers are more layered. When Warsh was first nominated on January 30, 2026, silver plunged over 31 per cent in a single session — its worst single-day fall in decades. The metal partially recovered but has struggled to regain its footing as the hawkish Fed narrative solidified.
Silver is uniquely exposed to the interest rate environment because it straddles two worlds: it is both a monetary metal (like gold) and an industrial commodity. Goldman Sachs views silver as “the primary strategic metal of the green transition,” while Citi cited an acute shortage of physical silver available for industrial delivery when issuing its target of $110 per ounce for the second half of 2026.
That industrial demand — from solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI hardware — provides a structural floor that pure monetary metals do not have. It also means any slowdown in global growth could hurt silver from both sides simultaneously.
What Analysts Are Saying: The Road Ahead
Gold silver price: Despite the current pain, most institutional analysts have not abandoned the long-term bull case for precious metals — though near-term targets have been trimmed.
Goldman Sachs and UBS revised their gold targets lower in May-June as rate-cut expectations were pushed into 2027 and ETF inflows softened — adjusting the timing of the rally, not the direction. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold forecast to $5,400, while JPMorgan targets $6,300 by end-2027.
For silver, the LBMA analyst survey for 2026 shows an average forecast of $79.57 per ounce — with a range running from $42 to $165. Bank of America has flagged a bull scenario of $135-309 per ounce if physical shortages intensify. JPMorgan projects an average of $81 per ounce for 2026.
The key variable is the Fed’s next move. A Reuters poll of 102 economists found 72 expecting no rate change through year-end, and markets are not pricing in cuts. If that changes — if inflation softens as the Iran war eases and energy prices fall — the conditions for a metals recovery snap back into place quickly. The $4,000 per ounce level in gold is widely cited as a threshold where sovereign central bank accumulation would likely accelerate, providing a demand cushion that limits the downside of any Fed-driven correction.
Gold, Silver Prices: What It Means for Buyers in Chandigarh
For jewellery buyers in the tricity, the correction offers a relative entry point. Gold at current levels is several thousand rupees per 10 grams below its recent peak. For investors who bought silver near the January highs on the back of the bullish forecasts that were widely reported at the time, the losses are real and a near-term reversal is not guaranteed.
The honest read, as one analyst framework put it: the bear case requires two things to fail simultaneously — the US-Iran ceasefire breaking down and the Fed turning even more hawkish. That double-negative scenario is less probable today than it was 48 hours ago. But until the Fed signals a genuine policy turn, gold and silver will remain under pressure from a dollar that has found its footing again.
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